Thursday 10/09/2008 by Lemuria


The following was posted to the Mockingbird Foundation website on October 9, 2008:

Stat Analysis Suggests Bust-Outs at Spaceship Hampton
Hardcore Methodology has Hardcore Phans Excited

Phish’s return to the stage next March is destined to involve screams of joy, lots of press, and several new songs. The band will perform three shows atHampton Coliseum in Virginia, after more than 4.5 years since its then-permanent breakup. A statistical analysis of information about it’s previous 12 shows at that venue, 34 shows in that state, and 1440 shows in history demonstrates that Hampton performances stand out. Specifically, it suggests that the band will perform Sample in a Jar, Harry Hood, Mike’s Song, Weekapaug Groove, Bathtub Gin, and Cars Trucks Buses (in order of the strength of expectation), as well as at least three new songs.

  • Big Steps - At shows stretching from 5/23/90 at The Library in Richmond, to 8/9/04 at Hampton, Virginia has watched Phish take big steps. Their first contract with hotel provisions was reportedly for 2/21/91 at Trax (signed with Coran Capshaw, now MusicToday founder etc.) [some other big firsts there] Sole summer shows between Santana and HORDE. They’ve performed in Virginia every day of the week, every month but September, and at least once every year from 1990 to 1999, often as they “followed the line going south” (per lyrics from their original tune “Curtain”, the last song of Coventry).
  • Song Diversity - Phish’s 34 Virginia shows have had an average of just over 20 songs per show. With two sets and an encore per show totaling around 150 minutes, that comes to about 7.5 minutes per song on average - and many Hampton shows are, of course, longer. The band has played nearly a third (214, or 31%) of its 690 or so songs in the state, leaving some 476 that haven’t yet vibrated Virginian air. Of songs the band has played, but not in Virginia,

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